Why Alphabet Is More Valuable Than Apple?

On Tuesday, February 2, 2016, when the markets opened, Alphabet (parent company of Google) became the most valuable company in the world replacing Apple. At the market opening, Alphabet market cap reached $547 billion, whereas Apple market cap was $529 billion. Why do investors believe that Alphabet is more valuable than Apple? Before we try to debate that, let us compare Alphabet revenues, profits, and profit margins with that of Apple for the last 5 years.

Apple Revenues, Profits, and Profits Margins 2011 to 2015

Apple generated $234 billion of revenues in FY 2015 (fiscal year ending September 2015). Apple total net profit in FY 2015 was $53 billion. This resulted in a net profit margin of 22.8%.

Apple Revenues Profits Profit Margins 2011 to 2015

Alphabet Revenues, Profits, and Profit Margins 2011 to 2015

Alphabet generated $75 billion of revenues in 2015 (year ending December 2015). Alphabet net profit in 2015 was $16 billion. This resulted in a net profit margin of 21.8%.

Alphabet Google Revenues Profits Profit Margins 2011 to 2015

Why Alphabet is more valuable than Apple?

As we can see from the charts above, Apple has over three-times more revenues and profits than Alphabet. The profit margins of both the companies are also similar. Then, why do investors think that Alphabet is more valuable than Apple? What are some possible arguments?

1. The revenue growth rates

The first argument is that Apple growth rate will slow down because the best of iPhone sales is behind us. iPhone is the major source of revenues and profits for Apple. In FY 2015 (fiscal year ending September 2015), Apple generated 66% of its total revenues from iPhone. Since iPhone sales might decline in future, it may impact Apple overall revenues and profits. This concern may appear true when we look at Apple’s non-iPhone revenues growth.

Apple Revenues and Revenue Share 2011 to 2015

If we look at the Alphabet’s advertising vs non-advertising revenues growth, they are also slowing down. But, investors seem to worry less about that.

Alphabet Google Revenues Growth and Share 2011 to 2015

Let us compare the revenues year-over-year growth of Alphabet and Apple. In FY 2010, Apple revenues were $65 billion. This is almost similar to Alphabet’s revenues of $66 billion in 2014. Now, Apple grew at 66% and 45% in FY 2011 and FY 2012 respectively. On the other hand, Alphabet total revenues grew 14% in 2015. This is far lower growth than that of Apple. Even over the next two years, in 2016 and 2017, the consensus estimates for Alphabet’s YoY growth are 14-15%. It may take Alphabet 5-10 years to reach the current revenues and profits of Apple.

Apple and Alphabet Google Revenues and YoY Revenue Growth 2010 to 2015

2. The competitive edge

Investors believe that Google has a strong competitive position. Google has a dominant position in search advertising market. As the global online population increases, the search activity will increase. Also, more online businesses will increasingly use search and display advertising to reach out to their target users. As for Apple, the argument is that the smartphone market is turning extremely competitive. Google’s Android based smartphones are also giving a big challenge to Apple iPhone.

We believe that both the companies have built sustainable competitive advantage for themselves. It is difficult to give more points to one over the another.

Apple has also built a sustainable competitive advantage with its vertically integrated model, strong network effects with its platforms for content and apps distribution, and its own retail stores strategy. (See ‘How Apple Makes Money?’ for details.)

3. The growth potential and the investor visibility

Investors are getting increasingly impatient about yet another disruptive product from Apple. Since Apple works secretly on most of its products and announces them only when they are ready for a launch, Investors have a little clue on what great product might be coming up next. So, they are unable to estimate the growth potential of Apple’s upcoming products.

On the contrary, Investors have some idea about the different future revenue sources of Alphabet. These include Access/Google Fiber, Calico, Nest, Verily (formerly Google Life Sciences), GV (formerly Google Ventures), Google Capital, X (formerly Google X) and other initiatives. They know Alphabet is currently losing most of the money on these bets right now. In 2015, Alphabet earned less-than-half-a-billion dollar of revenues from the non-Google companies, but had losses of three-and-half-billion dollars from those companies.

But, investors seems to care less about the losses. They are more happy about the fact that they have more visibility into where the company is losing money. We think it is the investor visibility aspect where Apple is losing out to Alphabet.

Important Notes Regarding The Charts

  • In all of the charts above, the revenues, profits, and profit margin numbers correspond to the fiscal years of the companies. Alphabet fiscal year ends in December. Apple fiscal year ends in September.
  • Even though Alphabet numbers are for the  December-ending fiscal year and Apple numbers are for the September-ending fiscal year, we can still make a comparison between them for the purposes of this post. Making adjustment for one quarter of revenues of either company won’t impact the overall message. The fiscal year numbers are chosen for comparison because they are readily available and most people can easily relate to these numbers.

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